Successful Investing Isn’t a One-Choice Deal

It Takes Discipline Over Time—Not Just a Lucky Pick

Not every investment is an NVIDIA.

Not every investor is a Warren Buffett.

And not every stock has the breakout trajectory of Amazon or the cultural mystique of Bitcoin.

“I think, oftentimes, there is a major misconception that to have a successful investment experience you must identify the next Tesla, Amazon or Crypto,” says Babk Gahvari, managing partner at Canter Wealth in La Jolla, California. “While finding the next home run investment can be exciting—and sometimes life-changing—what’s often misunderstood is how many strikeouts happen along the way.”

The Myth of the Miracle Stock
Today’s media landscape bombards investors with “next big thing” predictions. Whether it’s an AI startup, a renewable energy disruptor, or a trendy tech unicorn, the suggestion is the same: this one stock will secure your financial future.

It’s enticing. The subject lines in our inboxes promise life-changing returns. Financial news and social media hype amplify the noise. But the truth? Most investments don’t go to the moon.

Data supports this. A study from Blackstar Funds, later popularized by Meb Faber and published on SeekingAlpha, analyzed more than 8,000 stocks over a 23-year period. The results:

2 in 5 stocks were money-losers.

1 in 5 stocks lost more than 75% of their value.

Even Winners Take Hits
Take Apple, often seen as the gold standard of modern investing. Over the past four decades, even Apple stock has experienced severe drops—more than 75% at several points, including a 60% plunge in early 2009. More recently, the U.S.-China tariff war triggered a 40% decline in Apple's valuation in 2018.

And yet, Apple consistently remains among the top holdings in the S&P 500.

Why? Because long-term value endures—even through volatility.

Predictions vs. Principles
Each January, and really every week throughout the year, the financial world churns out predictions: top sectors, hot stocks, new rules. But the most successful investors don't build portfolios around speculation.

“There is a saying attributed to Warren Buffett that predictions will tell you a lot about the person making the prediction, but nothing about the future,” says Bert Doerhoff, managing member of Aura Wealth Advisors in Jefferson City, Missouri.

Buffett's track record includes wins like his 2011 Bank of America bet, when shares were $7 (they trade above $35 as of early 2025). But he’s missed, too—like his multi-billion dollar mistake on ConocoPhillips when oil prices tanked.

The point: even legendary investors are wrong sometimes.

Investing for the Long Haul
The essence of successful investing is not prediction—it's consistency. It's the discipline of staying invested through down cycles, resisting the allure of fast wins, and aiming for steady, inflation-beating returns.

“I simply want people to understand that markets have always worked over the long term,” says Doerhoff. “A couple at age 65 may need a 30-year investment plan. They need to plan not just for retirement—but for decades of life after it.”

The Real Lesson for 2025
You don’t need to find “the next Tesla” to win as an investor in 2025.

What you do need is a strategy grounded in fundamentals, diversified choices, and a tolerance for market bumps along the way. That’s not as flashy as buying the next viral stock, but it’s a lot more likely to help you reach your goals.

As Buffett himself has shown: success doesn’t come from never being wrong. It comes from being right enough, for long enough.